The hottest LLDPE weekly review, the upstream stre

2022-10-01
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[LLDPE weekly review] the strength of the upstream brought vitality. LLDPE warehouse receipts bottomed out and rebounded

as of the end of this week, China's plastic price index was at 945.88 points, up 15.38 points from the end of last week. LLDPE warehouse receipt index closed at 963.75 points, up 43.73 points from the same period last week

I. review of oiling

on May 1, the international labor day, American consumer confidence increased, and the decline in the US dollar exchange rate also supported the crude oil market, pushing oil prices up to the highest level in five weeks in light trading. New York light crude oil futures in recent months exceeded $53 a barrel, up 4%. On Monday, driven by the stock market, international oil prices rose for four consecutive trading days. After breaking through the key price of $53 per barrel, a new round of rise in crude oil futures has been established from the perspective of technology. On Tuesday, driven by the rise of Asian and European stock markets, New York light crude oil futures broke through the intraday high set on March 26 this year. However, US stocks fell, ± 10% of oil traders also took profits, and international oil prices closed lower. On Wednesday, the decline in U.S. employment slowed down, which means that the worst period of the U.S. economy has passed. Affected by this, U.S. stocks rose at the opening, driving crude oil futures up sharply by $1.60. On Thursday, optimistic about the economic outlook, European and American crude oil futures surged to 58 a barrel on the global electronic trading system during the Asian trading session, and the fracture of the sample is always near the breaking of US dollars on both sides. In European trading, US stocks rose at the opening, driving crude oil futures to exceed $58

as of the week of May 7, the average closing price of New York light oil futures for the first month was $54.912 a barrel, up $4.172 from the previous week. London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures for the first month closed at an average price of $54.834 a barrel, up $4.122 from the previous week

second, the spot market

the PE market maintained a narrow oscillation trend this week. Since the May Day holiday, the performance of international crude oil futures has been relatively strong. The two major petrochemical groups are mainly stable, but they are still inferior to the dismal demand of downstream factories, and the market is still stable

the PE market in East China is in a state of slow decline. Even if the crude oil price rises repeatedly, it is difficult to change the state of sluggish market demand. The impact of the sharp rise in crude oil closing on Wednesday is only that the LLDPE price rose slightly by 50 yuan/ton on Thursday, and it is more meaningful for businesses to test the price increase. The quotation of LLDPE is mostly about 9400 yuan/ton, with the lowest price of 9300 yuan/ton, and the market is very weak

the PE market in South China bottomed out and stabilized after the festival. The overall market is still relatively light, and the downstream demand continues to be poor. Merchants mostly take goods away, and the quotation is stable. At the beginning of the week, affected by the small number of businesses' purchases before May Day, the transaction was relatively smooth. Some buyers wanted to make up their positions by copying the bottom, but then the demand was vented. The quotation of LLDPE was maintained at yuan/ton. In the face of bleak demand, businesses did not want to hype

after the May Day holiday, the PE market in North China ended the decline of disinfecting bicycles every time they were used. Last week, the market began to stabilize. The listing policies of Sinopec and PetroChina in May played a key role. However, the dismal demand in the downstream has frustrated the confidence of merchants, and the buyer's inquiry has improved. It purchases more on demand and a small amount, and the transaction volume has not been large. The market focuses on crude oil and futures. If crude oil rises, the inquiry will turn better, and if crude oil falls, the inquiry will be light. The quotation of LLDPE this week remained at yuan/ton

III Technical analysis

warehouse receipt variety

settlement price (yuan/ton)

LLDPE warehouse receipt total transaction (batch)

LLDPE warehouse receipt order quantity (batch)

this weekend

last weekend

rise and fall

this week

last week

increase and decrease

this weekend

last weekend

increase and decrease

ll0906

9470

8986

+484

320

458

-138

236

284

-48

ll0907

9500

8966

+534

the LLDPE warehouse receipt market bottomed out this week, and the physical center of gravity at the end of the period increased compared with the beginning of the week. LLDPE warehouse orders opened higher and went higher on Monday, resulting in a bull market. After 9:30, the LLDPE warehouse receipt market remained stable with little change. In the afternoon opening, the market rose step by step, and there were not many transactions in the market. At the end of the day, it closed up sharply. After the warehouse orders opened sharply higher on Tuesday, the market plunged from high to low, and fell into a small shock situation. In the afternoon opening, there were few transactions on the market, and the market changed little. The trend of warehouse receipts marked a horizontal parallel track. On Wednesday, it opened sharply lower, and soon the warehouse orders entered a slow callback situation. The trend of broken step slow bull gives people a sense of stability. In the afternoon opening, the market continued to rise step by step, and closed down in the late afternoon. The sharp rise in oil prices on Thursday will reflect the positive impact on the plastic market. LLDPE warehouse orders opened higher and went higher, changing the previous decline. In the afternoon opening, the market developed steadily, there were few transactions on the market, and the market closed up sharply at the end of the day. LLDPE warehouse orders opened low and went high on Friday. The early market accelerated and rose, and reversed the market before noon, turning from decline to rise. In the afternoon opening, the market continued to rise and the trend slowed down. In the late trading, including providing value-added services for the Chinese market, it closed up sharply. As of Friday, the LLDPE warehouse receipt index was at 963.75 points, up 43.73 points from the same period last week

According to the K-line chart of the index day, the K-line entity combination closed 4 positive and 1 negative on this Sunday, and the entity stood on the moving average system at the end of the period. On the whole, the market rebounded sharply after bottoming out. Weekly K-line shows that this week's physical closing small positive line, KDJ indicators cross and rise, BOL line opening is stable, and the price line moves in parallel

IV. future forecast

recently, the ex factory quotations of Sinopec and PetroChina have been high, and the international crude oil has risen strongly. Affected by this, the overall pattern of the spot market is stable, but due to the limited entry of downstream buyers, the market fell into a stalemate after a short rebound. The supply of goods is insufficient, and some domestic petrochemical plants will be overhauled, so the traders' mentality of actively shipping remains unchanged. LLDPE warehouse receipts and Liansu finished two days of adjustment, rebounded again today, with a good momentum, and may hit the 10000 yuan level in the short term. It is expected that LLDPE warehouse receipts will still have room to rise in the short term

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